Last updated: October 13, 2026. Editorial Team — researched using FactSet and Zacks Investment Research earnings data. See “Sources & Methodology” below.

Quick Answer

Third-quarter earnings season is now in full swing, with JPMorgan and Citigroup scheduled to report before the market opens today, Tuesday, October 13. Analysts are projecting strong profit growth for the S&P 500 overall: FactSet puts expected Q3 earnings growth at 29.5%, while Zacks estimates 24.3%. The gap between those figures reflects different methodologies, but both point the same way. The notable exception is finance. Zacks projects Finance sector earnings up just 3.3%, and Banks and Brokerages up 2.5%, making the sector a laggard in an otherwise strong quarter.

The Headline Numbers: Strong Growth, Rising Estimates

According to FactSet’s October 2 earnings season preview, the blended S&P 500 is expected to report Q3 earnings growth of 29.5%, up from 26.7% on June 30, with revenue growth of 12.3%, up from 10.9%. All eleven sectors are projected to grow earnings, and five are expected to post double-digit growth, led by Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services and Materials.

Zacks’ October 9 analysis arrives at a lower but still robust number: earnings up 24.3% year over year on 11.5% higher revenues, which would mark the index’s eighth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Zacks also shows how concentrated that growth is. Excluding Energy, expected growth falls to 20.1%. Excluding Technology, it falls to 14.2%. Both firms’ figures are estimates and will change as companies actually report.

Why the two figures differ

FactSet and Zacks use different data sets, sector classifications and aggregation methods, so their growth totals are not directly comparable. Treat each as an internally consistent snapshot, and avoid mixing numbers from one with the other when you build your own comparisons.

Estimates are rising, not falling

One detail stands out. FactSet reports that Q3 per-share earnings estimates rose 1.4% between June 30 and September 30. Historically, estimates fall during a quarter: the 5-year average in-quarter decline is 2.2% and the 10-year average is 2.5%. Guidance tells a similar story. Of 116 S&P 500 companies that issued Q3 EPS guidance, 72 (62%) were positive, compared with a 5-year average of 40% and a 10-year average of 41%.

Why Banks Are the Quarter’s Weak Spot

Against that backdrop, Zacks’ finance numbers look subdued. The Finance sector is projected to grow earnings 3.3% on 6.3% higher revenues, and the Banks and Brokerages industry is projected to grow earnings 2.5% on 9.7% higher revenues. In plain terms, revenue growth is healthy but is not expected to flow through to profits at anything like the rate seen in Tech or Energy.

Zacks also notes that rising long-term Treasury yields have weighed on bank and broker stocks. That fits the rate backdrop we have covered recently, including the Fed and Bank of Japan tightening in the same week and Japan’s bond yields hitting multi-decade highs. Higher yields can help lending margins, but they can also pressure bond portfolios, funding costs and valuations, so the net effect on any one bank depends on its balance sheet. This article does not model individual bank results.

What Investors Will Watch in the Bank Reports

With JPMorgan and Citigroup opening the season, several themes are likely to draw attention. These are areas to watch rather than forecasts:

• Net interest income guidance: Management commentary on the path of margins given the higher-yield environment.
• Credit quality: Loan-loss provisions and charge-offs, which are often read as a signal for the broader consumer and corporate economy.
• Capital markets activity: Trading and investment banking revenue, which can swing quarter to quarter.
• Outlook language: Whether executives sound more cautious or more confident about Q4 and 2027.

Zacks lists Johnson & Johnson, Taiwan Semiconductor and UnitedHealth among other bellwethers reporting this week, and notes that 29 S&P 500 members report in total. That mix gives investors an early read across banking, healthcare and semiconductors within a single week.

Early Results: Encouraging, But a Tiny Sample

Per Zacks, 19 S&P 500 members have already reported Q3 results. Their combined earnings are up 150.9% on 27% higher revenues, with 78.9% beating EPS estimates and 73.7% beating revenue estimates. That headline is heavily distorted by one company. Excluding Micron, whose earnings rose 1,075.7%, the other 18 companies grew earnings 9.4%. With only a small slice of the index reported, early results should not be extrapolated.

Valuation: Not Stretched by Its Own History

FactSet puts the S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio at 19.0, below the 5-year average of 19.8 and essentially in line with the 10-year average of 19.1. It was 20.4 at the end of Q2, so the multiple has come down as estimates have risen. FactSet also shows analysts expecting 27.6% earnings growth in Q4 2026 and 32.4% for calendar 2026. Those are forecasts and could be revised, particularly if rates or energy prices move sharply.

How This Connects to Recent Market Themes

The earnings picture ties into several stories we have followed. Tech-led growth echoes the split inside semiconductor stocks and the disconnect between Magnificent Seven prices and earnings estimates. The softer finance outlook is a reminder that the value-versus-growth debate, covered in our piece on the value rotation, does not play out evenly: financials are often classed as value, yet their earnings outlook this quarter lags the index.

Practical Takeaways

• Look past the headline growth rate. Growth is concentrated in a few sectors, and ex-Energy and ex-Tech numbers are far lower.
• Compare like with like. FactSet and Zacks figures differ by methodology, so track one source consistently.
• Judge banks on guidance, not just the beat. Management outlook on margins and credit often moves the stock more than the quarter itself.
• Beat rates are not the whole story. A stock can fall after beating if expectations were high.

Frequently Asked Questions

When do JPMorgan and Citigroup report Q3 2026 earnings?

Both are scheduled to report before the market opens on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, according to Zacks.

How much are S&P 500 earnings expected to grow in Q3?

FactSet estimates 29.5% growth and Zacks estimates 24.3%. The difference stems from methodology, and both are estimates that will change as results come in.

Why are bank earnings expected to grow so slowly?

Zacks projects Banks and Brokerages earnings up 2.5% on 9.7% higher revenues, and notes that rising long-term Treasury yields have weighed on the group. This article does not identify specific causes at individual banks.

Does a strong earnings season mean stocks will rise?

Not necessarily. Prices reflect expectations, valuations and interest rates as well as reported profits, so strong results can coincide with falling or flat prices.

Is the market expensive right now?

Per FactSet, the forward P/E of 19.0 is below its 5-year average of 19.8 and roughly in line with its 10-year average of 19.1. Valuation is one input among many and does not predict near-term returns.

Sources & Methodology

This article draws on FactSet’s “S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026” (John Butters, October 2, 2026) and Zacks Investment Research’s “Estimates Keep Rising as Q3 Earnings Season Takes Center Stage” (Sheraz Mian, October 9, 2026). Figures are consensus estimates or early results as of those dates and may have changed.

Sources: FactSet Insight; Zacks Investment Research.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned. Consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.